TW Price, a very young and very talented knife designer, posed a series of questions on his IG feed about the knife market in a recent post. Here is that post:

His observations about the knife market not booming like it was are unquestionably correct. His comments about collecting and the secondary market are also, in my opinion, true. I agree with him about the market oversaturation. But there are a few things he mentions that aren’t, in my opinion, the cause of the knife market’s recent woes. He also asks about what fires people up. I wanted to offer my thoughts as these are issues that are percolating around the community and are also issues I think about a lot.

Oversaturation and Drops

One problem in the knife market right now is there two fundamental issues with how knives are sold, both of which relate to that most primeval force in capitalism: supply and demand. The market is oversaturated with knife releases and the drop model is not sustainable by most over the long term.

When multiple companies have MONTHLY release schedules, that’s too many knives. In the middle part of the 20th Century companies went years without new releases. They made a number of knives for a number of different tasks and released new ones when designs or materials got better. Now we have a new knife because, well, gotta catch ‘em all.

And that represents a flaw in how people market knives. If you are a collector, which is a fine thing to be, then you are always looking for the rare thing, the extraordinary thing, that thing that appeals to you. Simply being new is not enough to sustain collectors. But knife companies sensing a market opening have produced knives that aren’t rare or extraordinary or even appealing. They are just selling stuff that is new. And “new” here is very loosely defined. Do we really need fifteen iterations of the CJRB Pyrite? No, we don’t. Too many companies are making too many knives.

Its not just on the low end either. Quite a few companies overseas makes excellent knives, but they make too many of them. They drop them or bundle them in a way to create a feeling of scarcity without the knives actually being scarce. They sell them with “premium” materials like polished DLC and Mokuti without those things actually being premium, rare, or limited. We can make as much DLC or Mokuti as we need. It is not scarce.

In the high end part of the market, we have become conditioned to buy things in drops. While it works initially and generates hype, it is easily exploitable and not sustainable. If you want a knife and it is available in a drop only, all a competitor has to do is make a similarly coveted knife and schedule its drops off cycle. Then the pent up demand for a “drop” is taken by another knife and the process repeats. Knife C then disrupts knife B, which disrupted knife A and so on.

But the drop model is dumb for another reasons—companies work on the idea that if they make something people want, they produce it for less than it sells for, and then they sell it they can make a profit, which, if you are unaware, is the point of a company. In the drop model, they don’t always have products to sell and so they aren’t always making money. As a result it is hard to make a steady income. Some makers, like Brian Nadeau and Joseph Vero, have the model working on a consistent basis, so there is always income, but a lot of other people that sell self-published blades aren’t that consistent and so when their “demand” gets poached by some other drop or the market is oversaturated as it is now, the effects are ruinous. The self-publishing model should be seen either as a way to get up and running as a production company, like Knafs or Vero, or like a side hustle that occasionally makes money. What it should not be is a model for a different kind of company. Those kinds of companies don’t work for reasons discussed below.

Censorship

Recently, a group of make up influencers reached out to me and asked if I would stop writing this blog and replace it with a blog about eye makeup. They pointed that makeup generated more traffic and was a more profitable industry than gear. I told them no. They sent me dozens of emails. They then petitioned me to switch. I ignored all of this, but they persisted. They claimed that me not writing about eye make up was sexist and impacted the rights of women everywhere. I finally had to shut down an email address associated with this page. Then they followed me to IG where I was inundated with DMs.

Actually none of this happened, but you get the analogy.

Meta having community restrictions on what can be posted is their right. We do not have a right to tell others how to use their property. And so while I feel bad for knife makers that have been negatively impacted by Instagram’s community policies, this is not a problem with censorship or free speech (see more here). Obama got rightfully heavily criticized after making a point that small businesses needed others to exist (his rare and infamous verbal gaff of “you didn’t build that”), but as the Meta community rules situation demonstrates—everyone’s success is premised on a complex network of contributions made by different people. This complex network of contributions is called “the free market” and one of its core principles is that people have the right to use their property as they want.

I happily support the effort to change Meta’s community rules (though to be fair I have never had problems on IG with knife posts), but if people really want to make a change they should become shareholders. If you want a company to listen to you, become an owner. Otherwise you are basically begging for a hand out.

I do think this is having a negative impact on some parts of the market, but largely because those parts of the market were immature. If your company’s success is not just related to but inextricably linked to the whims of another company, you are going to have problems. Getting knives into retail stores is one work around for this. This is why the mature production companies sell through retailers. If one goes down they have another and so on.

Another option would be to develop your own market, like QVC did in the mid-1990s. People watched just because. They weren’t necessarily tuning in for something specific, but, instead, just because they liked “deals” and they liked the QVC platform. Companies with thriving online communities, like TRM, the Busse subforum on Blade Forums or Knafs on YouTube and Kickstarter have done this.

The Knafs example is especially potent. Ben uses Youtube, Instagram, Kickstarter, and a network of retailers to ensure that no one company or platform controls the future of his company. This isn’t just fun accessible content—it is a survival strategy for his business. He even has a brick and mortar retail outlet. Diversity is the sign of a mature market and a market that depends exclusively on IG isn’t sustainable in the long term.

The Meta content issue is really the knife market’s equivalent of the Irish Potato famine. It is a sign that the market was immature and too heavily invested in one format. While I think it is hypocritical for IG to more heavily sanction knife-related posts than boob-related posts, its Meta’s prerogative given that Instagram is their property. The community can focus on changing the policy, but knife producers really should start to diversify their methods of reaching buyers. This means that some folks might have to spend some money on a functional website or some time on building a network of retailers, but that is just how the market maturation works.

Knife Innovation

For me, one of the issues that has infected the knife market and is depriving it of any real punch is the lack of use-focused designs. There are only so many “general use” titanium framelocks that you can buy. So many knives, especially in the self-published space, have the same general specs—3”-3.5” blades, 4”-4.5” handles, weight between 3-5 ounces, titanium framelock, M390, made by Reate, WE, or Bestech, using bearings, and usually with some kind of flipper. They look the same, they feel the same, the cut the same.

TRM’s success is because they are both different and good. When everyone was running massively thick blades, they went thin. When flippers were all the rage, they had thumb studs. When bearings were everywhere, they had washers. They zigged when everyone else was zagging. But so many knives today are just the same thing over and over and over again. When you couple that sameness with oversaturation, burnout is not just likely, it is inevitable.

It would be easy to say that makers should make something different, but that’s not all that helpful. Instead, let me offer this piece of advice—make something purpose driven. Don’t try to be all things to all people. Don’t settle on a blade that is 3.25 or 3.3 inch long because that is the “sweet spot” of the market. The sweet spot is already completely filled up. Make something small with the idea that it can drop into a coin pocket (like the Urban EDC Supply Baby Barlow). Make something huge because the knife is a foldable prytool. Make something with a weird blade shape because it is a modern take on the Sharpfinger (honestly, a Sharpfinger with modern steel would be great).

Basically, make a knife that is like the Lamborghini Sterrato. In case you are unaware, Lamborghini modified a small number (1400) of Huracans and equipped them to be off road vehicles and the result is an angular, gorgeous dirt missile that is every bit a Lambo, but also something unlike any other car from the Bull. It is a beautiful, purpose-driven design that just works. Most importantly let the form follow the function and make the function a bit off the beaten path.

One knife that just sticks in my head is the absolutely stunning and fun CRKT Provoke. Is it something I EDC? Nope. It is something that I would buy and play around with? Absolutely. It is so good, so fun, and so different. Be different because the knife’s purpose requires something different. Doing stuff the same in a market that is already oversaturated isn’t going to do well.

Stuff that Still Hits Hard

There is a lot of good stuff out there, but in a market that is producing 24 new knives a week, it can be hard to find. Simen Stryckers makes some of my favorite non-art knife customs. They are as refined as a river rock and bear a distinctly Stryckers element to them. When you see one you have no doubt who made it. I am also really impressed with some of the 1 off stuff from Smith and Sons, the makers of the Mudbug, a knife I reviewed eons ago. The Marshland Trapper is especially cool. I also think the new Case modern traditionals look particularly interesting. One company that always hits me in the knife design feels is Busse. Sure they are ridiculous and silly, but they are always evocative. I never see a Busse and think: “That’s an okay looking knife.” Some part of my brain is screaming, either good or bad (though vastly more good than bad). I am also quite smitten with the Spyderco Subway Bowie. It is so small and so interesting. I am also smitten with the previously mentioned Urban EDC Supply Baby Barlow. You can toss into that group the wonderfully different Frelux Synergy line of torches. Different, purpose-driven designs are harder to make than yet another TFF, but those aren’t selling right now, so it is time to switch approaches.

Mr. Price, thanks for your inspiration. Your blades have always stood out to me and if my Space Bucks account aligned with a drop, I’d happily get a knife in for review. Their handles speak of something different—a folder with a handle-first approach. Someday I will add one to the Review Archive.